Chevron and ExxonMobil post big Q3 gains as tight diesel market lifts refining

Earnings and what moved the stocks

ExxonMobil said quarterly profit climbed to $15.4 billion from $7.5 billion in the comparable 2025 period, with earnings per share up to $3.72 from $1.76. On an adjusted basis, EPS came in at $4.23, topping the $4.08 estimate from LSEG.

Revenue hit $113.2 billion versus the $103.1 billion forecast. Refining delivered about $7.2 billion of profit, edging out roughly $7.1 billion from the production business. Year to date, Exxon's refining profits are nearly 200% higher at about $11.4 billion compared with $4 billion in the first nine months of 2025.

Chevron also delivered a surge. Net income reached $9.9 billion, up from $3.5 billion a year earlier, or $5.06 per share compared with $1.82. Adjusted EPS was $5.28 against expectations of $4.89, and revenue was $67.8 billion versus the $61.6 billion consensus, according to LSEG. Both companies' shares set all time highs Friday.

Refining runs, diesel prices, and tight capacity

Exxon's Gulf Coast plants operated at 100% utilization and, in CEO Darren Woods' words, produced "record volumes of diesel." He told CNBC, "Refining capacity is very tight today," adding that diesel is the pinch point because demand does not budge much even when prices rise.

Chevron said its U.S. refineries ran at 98% capacity and processed a touch over 1 million barrels per day of crude, a company record. CEO Mike Wirth said, "The system is under stress" and "We remain in an environment that is fairly fragile." The company reported diesel and jet fuel yields were up more than 10%, and refining profits rose to $4.9 billion from $1.1 billion in the same quarter of 2025.

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With refineries in Russia and the Middle East suffering attacks by Ukraine, Iran and Houthi militants, importers have turned more to U.S. Gulf Coast plants for diesel, as the strikes have slashed daily throughput by several million barrels. AAA put the U.S. diesel average at $6.32 per gallon on Friday, more than 70% above last year, with a record reached in September.

Production, politics, and why it matters

Chevron's oil and gas output edged down to 3.9 million barrels per day versus around 4 million bpd a year earlier. The drop came from its international operations, due in part to conflict in the Middle East, while U.S. production was largely flat. Its oil and gas production unit posted $5.7 billion in earnings, a 70% increase from $3.3 billion in the prior year period.

Exxon's production averaged about 4.5 million bpd this year, slipping by more than 2% compared with nearly 4.7 million over the first nine months of 2025.

High profits during wartime have drawn scrutiny. In August, President Donald Trump said Chevron and Exxon "were making too much money based on a shortage." The supply disruption started in March following a U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. For your portfolio, the swing factors are clear: sustained refinery utilization, diesel price strength, and how long capacity stays constrained by attacks and outages.

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